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It has been several months since coronavirus has been declared as a pandemic by the World Health Organization. What followed was a series of nations imposing lockdown due to the deadly impact of the virus on human lives. As the number of active cases and the death toll began to increase, more and more people became restricted to their homes. In such a scenario, it wouldn’t be utterly foolish if one predicted that the world population would spike since parents and couples are confined to their homes with no social life whatsoever. But the recent data released by the researchers of Health Metrics and Evaluations says otherwise.
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According to reports, 23 nations are expected to have their population reduced by half in the next 80 years due to the falling fertility rates. In addition, nations are predicted to have almost the same number of people turning 80 as there are being born. This jaw-dropping global crash is ultimately said to have a major impact on societies (1).
What Is Causing It?
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This is because there is a drastic drop in the average number of women giving birth. When the fertility rate goes below 2.1, it will have an impact on the world population. In 1950, women on average were having 4.7 kids in their lifetime. By 2017, this number nearly halved to 2.4. In addition, the study published by the researchers at the University of Washington reveals that the average number of kids birthed by a woman will go below 1.7 by the end of the century (2).
The world population is expected to reach its highest around 2064 at 9.7 billion before crashing to 8.8 billion by 2100.
So, what’s the reason behind the dwindling fertility rate?
One would expect the falling fertility rates to be caused by lower sperm counts or poor fertility health. But it had nothing to do with that. It is more so because more women are now educated and working. People also have better access to contraceptives. All of these reasons give women the freedom to choose, which in turn is affecting the fertility rate. So, if you think about it, it’s more of a success story than anything else (3).
The Countries Affected By This
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Many countries including Japan and Spain will be impacted by the falling fertility rate. Japan’s population of 128 million in 2017 is expected to fall to 53 million by 2100 (4).
Italy will also see a dramatic decrease from 61 million in 2017 to 28 million by the end of the century. A total of 23 nations including South Korea, Thailand, Portugal, and Spain are expected to have a jaw-dropping decline in the same time frame.
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When we think about it, it might seem good for the environment. A smaller population may have benefits such as less carbon emissions and reduced deforestation. But when the fertility rate goes below the replacement level, it leads to consequences such as the inverted age structure. This would mean more old people at the wider top of the pyramid than the younger generation. This paves the way to a drastic change in society. In an aging society, who is going to pay taxes or pay for healthcare for the elderly? Will there be a change in retirement plans?
Several countries have changed their migration policies to deal with falling fertility rates. Even though this may be effective to an extent, it will cease to be helpful once every nation’s population plummets. However, certain countries have taken a different approach by reforming their policies and providing free childcare, financial incentives, and new and improved maternity and paternity leave policies.
Though we have not found a clear solution on how to tackle this problem, it should in no way compromise on women’s education and access to contraception. What are your thoughts on this new research? Comment below and let us know.
